Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xaba4…3fa6 sports 123 markets active 8h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+7%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%58W / 60L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$21
14 days+$66
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$58
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 38% -5.4%
≤30d 118 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 48% -2.2%
≤90d 118 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 48% -2.2%
all 118 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 48% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 48% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 47% -11.5%
15% -32.4% 42% -20.1%
20% -39.0% 34% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses58 / 60
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)118 / 123
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will Czechia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $6 +$5 +90%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $8 +$4 +49%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $4 +$3 +70%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $194 −$59 -30%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $7 +$11 +165%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +119%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $58 +$64 +111%
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Sweeny (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $33 +$81 +249%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $8 +$13 +150%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Damm vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $6 +$14 +225%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Set Handicap: Bergs (-1.5) vs McCabe (+1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $3 +$2 +53%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $3 +$5 +173%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $12 +$5 +40%
Set Handicap: Duckworth (-1.5) vs Dedura-Palomero (+1.5) Jun 09 $1 +$1 +90%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $34 +$16 +46%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $4 +$2 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $7 +$5 +73%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Raphael Perot Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $2 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $1 8h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $1 8h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $1 9h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $1 12h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $1 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $1 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $1 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $1 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $1 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $1 13h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $1 13h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $1 13h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $1 16h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 51¢ $1 17h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 53¢ $1 18h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 53¢ $1 18h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 53¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.66 · official $11.66 (match) · 1031 history records