Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xaba6…6c81 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+26%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$61
sports 17% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 74% +18.0%
≤30d 19 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 74% +18.0%
≤90d 19 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 74% +18.0%
all 19 +11.1% +0.5% 79% 74% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 74% +18.0%
10% -9.1% 32% +6.7%
15% -17.9% 21% -3.6%
20% -25.9% 16% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.12 per $1 lost it wins $5.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $70 +$68 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $138 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 50¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $30 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records