Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabaa…b210 other 29 markets active 20h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-7%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$14
other 31% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.8% -16.6% 28% 24% -16.6%
≤30d 29 -7.8% -16.6% 28% 24% -16.6%
≤90d 29 -7.8% -16.6% 28% 24% -16.6%
all 29 -7.8% -16.6% 28% 24% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 24% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 24% -24.5%
15% -31.8% 21% -31.8%
20% -38.5% 21% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$46 +101%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $15 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 50¢ $6 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $13 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $5 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 45h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records