Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabad…80b1 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-15%) realized −$126 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day96.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$107
crypto 25% −$59
other 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 24% -34.9%
≤30d 33 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 24% -34.9%
≤90d 33 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 24% -34.9%
all 33 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 24% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 24% -34.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 21% -41.1%
15% -33.2% 18% -46.8%
20% -39.7% 12% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day96.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Billy Harris 36¢ 34¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $30 −$14 -47%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $257 −$6 -2%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $27 −$2 -7%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $21 −$11 -54%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $114 −$59 -52%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $41 −$11 -27%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $26 +$11 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 31¢ $9 0m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 31¢ $9 5m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 18¢ $6 9m
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen SELL Billy Harris 33¢ $6 10m
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 36¢ $7 13m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 11¢ $7 14m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 39¢ $24 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 37¢ $20 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 63¢ $45 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 43¢ $29 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 36¢ $30 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 33¢ $29 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 38¢ $21 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 64¢ $8 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 41¢ $24 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 35¢ $20 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 56¢ $41 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 45¢ $8 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 48¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 54¢ $10 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 41¢ $28 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 42¢ $31 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 36¢ $48 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 19¢ $27 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 15¢ $11 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 26¢ $20 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 43¢ $35 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 30¢ $26 3h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif SELL Jennifer Ruggeri 50¢ $26 3h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 52¢ $27 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.89 · official $9.89 (match) · 118 history records