Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AB 0xabb0…aeac politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% $0
politics 15% −$1
sports 15% −$2
crypto 12% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 14 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage155d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $282 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $128 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $128 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $153 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $17 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $42 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $49 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $46 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $79 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $79 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $49 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $49 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 100d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $21 114d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $21 114d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $14 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $14 115d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $6 116d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $6 116d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $13 116d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $14 117d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $3 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $7 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $2 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records