Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabb1…8d31 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+2%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$43
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$34
other 4% +$1
finance 3% $0
sports 2% −$2
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 4% -6.7%
≤90d 32 -1.5% -10.8% 31% 3% -7.0%
all 41 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 7% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 7% -7.1%
10% -19.7% 5% -16.0%
15% -27.5% 5% -24.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage525d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 70¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $72 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $150 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $76 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 +$41 +50%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $33 −$8 -25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $8 −$1 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ipswich win on 2025-02-15? Mar 04 $9 +$1 +15%
Mercer vs. Furman Feb 13 $6 +$3 +47%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $79 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $13 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $66 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $2 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $75 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $50 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $38 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $73 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.47 · official $79.17 (match) · 165 history records