Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AB 0xabba…cc24 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$522 (-15%) realized −$80 · open −$442
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$700per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$457
world 4% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$45 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,831
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$442
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage10d
Avg bet$700
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,192 $2,708 −$484 (-15%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $81 $123 +$42 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 13m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $790 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,067 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $993 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $354 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,831.00 · official $2,831.00 (match) · 20 history records