Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabbf…8a75 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,874 (-3%) realized −$5,669 · open −$205
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate86%94W / 15L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,990per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$3,295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$386
7 days−$7,657
14 days−$6,022
30 days−$5,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$706
other 33% −$5,412
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.0% -17.7% 86% 0% -43.6%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 93% 7% -17.1%
≤90d 40 +1.2% -8.5% 95% 12% -11.5%
all 109 -2.6% -11.8% 86% 36% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 36% -12.0%
10% -20.3% 6% -20.4%
15% -28.0% 3% -28.1%
20% -35.0% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$3,858) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$1,317 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$3,295
Realized−$5,669
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses94 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,990
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 94¢ 88¢ $3,500 $3,295 −$205 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $455 +$45 +10%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 23 $3,294 +$105 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,997 +$236 +8%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $3,110 +$90 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,001 +$36 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $948 +$55 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $8,550 −$8,225 -96%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $8,089 +$516 +6%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $7,737 +$278 +4%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,235 +$65 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,825 +$175 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $6,090 +$202 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,600 +$400 +9%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 30 $608 +$27 +4%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $6,007 +$813 +14%
Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5) May 24 $5,802 +$198 +3%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-13? May 24 $5,001 −$5,001 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 24 $5,105 +$814 +16%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5) May 19 $5,029 +$171 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3,562 +$427 +12%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4,034 +$484 +12%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) May 17 $4,129 +$167 +4%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 16 $3,907 +$242 +6%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) May 15 $3,858 +$242 +6%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) May 13 $3,605 +$184 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5 May 10 $1,806 +$94 +5%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) May 09 $4,845 +$155 +3%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 06 $4,800 +$200 +4%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) May 03 $5,986 +$373 +6%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 30 $2,820 +$180 +6%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 29 $6,003 +$502 +8%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $3,652 +$315 +9%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 19 $647 +$20 +3%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $5,032 +$245 +5%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 16 $5,044 +$156 +3%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 15 $2,804 +$589 +21%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) Apr 12 $4,946 +$152 +3%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Apr 11 $1,455 +$45 +3%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $4,302 +$427 +10%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) Apr 04 $4,947 +$153 +3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $4,955 +$104 +2%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $4,871 +$84 +2%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $2,845 +$211 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter Mar 18 $3,999 +$301 +8%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $3,000 +$293 +10%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3,951 +$115 +3%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $3,000 +$406 +14%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $500 +$81 +16%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Mar 03 $890 −$890 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Mar 03 $2,003 −$2,003 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 94¢ $3,506 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 91¢ $455 34h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Norway 97¢ $3,266 46h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Norway 97¢ $28 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,233 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,997 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $59 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $3,051 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $948 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Sweden $325 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $950 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $757 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $214 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $214 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $6,172 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $202 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $20 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $20 5d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $54 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $137 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $765 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $76 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $16 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $76 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $188 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $78 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $76 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $78 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 94¢ $94 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,295.21 · official $3,295.21 (match) · 617 history records