Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

AB 0xabc1…9561 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$79 (+31%) realized +$79 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-31.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+37.7%	+24.6%	100%	100%	+33.2%
≤30d	2	+37.7%	+24.6%	100%	100%	+33.2%
≤90d	5	-24.1%	-31.4%	60%	40%	+19.9%
all	5	-24.1%	-31.4%	60%	40%	+19.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.4%	40%	+19.9%
10%	-37.9%	40%	+8.4%
15%	-43.9%	20%	-2.1%
20%	-49.4%	0%	-11.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$12 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$79

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage63d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 20	$25	+$6	+25%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$202	+$101	+50%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	May 14	$6	−$6	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Apr 21	$6	$0	+4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Apr 21	$18	−$18	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$25	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	66¢	$202	11h
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY Gen.G	60¢	$6	36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$6	59d
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$18	63d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records