Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabc4…9ac9 crypto 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$160 (-2%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%231W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +22.3% +10.6% 76% 76% +10.0%
≤30d 29 +22.3% +10.6% 76% 76% +10.0%
≤90d 334 -9.4% -18.1% 69% 50% -11.4%
all 334 -9.4% -18.1% 69% 50% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 50% -11.4%
10% -25.9% 28% -19.9%
15% -33.1% 16% -27.7%
20% -39.6% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses231 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage80d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$15 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$24 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$9 +162%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$3 -33%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $20 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 718 history records