Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AB 0xabc4…43df sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,805 (+25%) realized +$1,824 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR74%break-even

Win rate87%20W / 3L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$282per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$1,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$110

7 days+$110

14 days−$234

30 days−$234

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +74%

net ROI/market (all)+34.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+54.6%	+39.9%	100%	100%	+39.9%
≤30d	6	-1.4%	-10.8%	67%	67%	-24.0%
≤90d	6	-1.4%	-10.8%	67%	67%	-24.0%
all	23	+48.3%	+34.2%	87%	74%	+18.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+34.2%	74%	+18.0%
10%	+21.4%	48%	+6.7%
15%	+9.6%	43%	-3.6%
20%	-1.1%	35%	-13.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% too few recent

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +75% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$123 vs −$224 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage

Net worth$1,381

Realized+$1,824

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)87%

Wins / losses20 / 3

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage240d

Avg bet$282

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	81¢	$1,000	$994	−$6 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	50¢	$200	$194	−$6 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$200	$193	−$7 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	+$110	+55%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$100	+$19	+18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$503	+$88	+18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$102	+101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$478	−$474	-99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 11	$82	−$80	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Nov 26	$100	+$19	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Nov 25	$100	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Nov 25	$100	+$3	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Nov 25	$46	+$20	+45%
Cavaliers vs. Heat	Nov 13	$100	+$186	+186%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$500	+$216	+43%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?	Nov 09	$998	−$118	-12%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 09	$100	+$106	+106%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	Nov 02	$500	+$166	+33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 01	$100	+$442	+442%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$1,000	+$810	+81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)	Oct 30	$100	+$15	+15%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Oct 29	$28	+$5	+19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner	Oct 29	$60	+$32	+54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)	Oct 29	$500	+$54	+11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner	Oct 29	$100	+$72	+72%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner	Oct 25	$20	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$203	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$1,005	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$202	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	39h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	97¢	$591	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$503	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$204	9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	79¢	$376	10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$102	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$82	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$100	207d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$100	208d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$46	208d
Cavaliers vs. Heat	BUY Cavaliers	35¢	$100	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	SELL T1	100¢	$716	224d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?	SELL Yes	99¢	$651	224d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?	BUY Yes	76¢	$500	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	70¢	$500	224d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?	SELL Yes	28¢	$229	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	99¢	$206	224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	48¢	$100	224d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	SELL T1	100¢	$666	231d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?	BUY Yes	62¢	$498	231d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	BUY T1	75¢	$500	232d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	SELL KT Rolster	100¢	$357	232d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	SELL KT Rolster	52¢	$186	232d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	14¢	$100	233d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,380.55 · official $1,380.67 (match) · 53 history records