Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabc7…4af7 sports 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$163 (-9%) realized −$166 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%152W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$32
14 days−$80
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$155
crypto 35% −$34
other 2% −$6
weather 1% −$3
politics 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 51% -19.0%
≤30d 270 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 47% -19.2%
≤90d 289 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 47% -19.8%
all 289 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 47% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 47% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -27.5%
15% -32.6% 30% -34.5%
20% -39.2% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses152 / 137
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)289 / 296
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 77¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+79%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Over 43¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $7 +$4 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $9 −$6 -67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $4 +$3 +74%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 +$3 +69%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $9 −$5 -55%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $4 23m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 23m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 59¢ $4 24m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 24m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $4 24m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 25m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 26m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $3 26m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 9h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 47¢ $5 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 53¢ $10 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $10 21h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 1¢ $0 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 10¢ $3 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 15¢ $3 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $3 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $3 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 19¢ $3 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $6 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $6 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $6 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $6 26h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $9 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 40h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $8 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.18 · official $28.86 (match) · 768 history records