Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xabc9…6d04 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+36%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$15
other 36% +$16
crypto 17% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+60.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +78.5% +61.5% 50% 25% +33.6%
≤30d 20 +78.5% +61.5% 50% 25% +33.6%
≤90d 22 +77.3% +60.4% 50% 27% +45.8%
all 22 +77.3% +60.4% 50% 27% +45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.4% 27% +45.8%
10% +45.1% 27% +31.9%
15% +31.1% 27% +19.1%
20% +18.2% 27% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +150% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage92d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$24 +256%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1575%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $8 +$18 +232%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $1 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 17h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $9 19h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 31h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.76 · official $43.77 (match) · 50 history records