Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabca…2573 other 272 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 256L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$38
sports 22% −$21
economics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$3
crypto 7% −$6
world 4% −$5
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 272 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage141d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $433 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $524 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $365 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $761 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $626 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $663 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $453 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $421 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $372 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $777 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $158 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 01 $644 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $473 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $381 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $154 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 16m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 9h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 10h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 15h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 16h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 19h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 20h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 25h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 28h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 30h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 32h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $23 34h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 35h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 44h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 46h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 46h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1393 history records