Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xabcc…d148 weather 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.5% -3.6% 88% 25% -3.8%
≤30d 8 +6.5% -3.6% 88% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 8 +6.5% -3.6% 88% 25% -3.8%
all 8 +6.5% -3.6% 88% 25% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 25% -3.8%
10% -12.8% 12% -13.0%
15% -21.2% 0% -21.4%
20% -29.0% 0% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.55 per $1 lost it wins $6.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Yes 86¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $70 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 91¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 77¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $32 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $30 42h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.57 (match) · 26 history records