Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xabcc…5b75 sports 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$842 (+5%) realized +$617 · open +$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%55W / 26L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$299
14 days−$237
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$356
economics 29% +$364
sports 26% +$440
other 10% −$258
politics 3% +$94
world 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.0% -29.4% 44% 38% -30.1%
≤30d 19 -15.4% -23.4% 47% 42% -22.8%
≤90d 22 -10.2% -18.7% 55% 45% -13.7%
all 81 -1.9% -11.2% 68% 57% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 57% -5.6%
10% -19.7% 37% -14.7%
15% -27.5% 23% -22.9%
20% -34.6% 20% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$94 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$2,135
Realized+$617
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses55 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)81 / 93
History coverage594d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $400 $436 +$36 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 92¢ $300 $405 +$105 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $300 $350 +$50 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $300 $289 −$11 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 96¢ $200 $258 +$58 (+29%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 78¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 76¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+27%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$46 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 +$88 +262%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $68 −$67 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $200 +$35 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $100 +$23 +23%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 02 $400 +$33 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 03 $200 +$74 +37%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $100 +$19 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $500 +$14 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 11 $100 +$9 +9%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 11 $400 +$85 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 11 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 04 $200 −$126 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $200 +$25 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $200 +$60 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $300 +$53 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $700 +$216 +31%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $400 −$63 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 08 $200 +$31 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 08 $300 +$33 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 08 $300 +$37 +12%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Pacers vs. Jazz Nov 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 13 $30 +$56 +186%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 12 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 12 $400 +$235 +59%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $100 −$24 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $69 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $68 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $34 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $90 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $201 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 80¢ $100 79d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $100 79d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 85¢ $100 91d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $200 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,134.78 · official $2,134.78 (match) · 215 history records