Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabce…2f87 sports 597 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,248 (-2%) realized −$4,478 · open +$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%334W / 569L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Fees−$1,892est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$14,126
other 19% −$2,481
crypto 4% −$703
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 -50.8% -55.5% 27% 23% -87.9%
≤30d 633 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 27% -80.5%
≤90d 903 -30.2% -36.9% 37% 32% -40.1%
all 903 -30.2% -36.9% 37% 32% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 32% -40.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 28% -45.8%
15% -48.4% 24% -51.1%
20% -53.5% 20% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$253 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$4,478
Unrealized+$230
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses334 / 569
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,892
Open positions3
Markets (closed)903 / 597
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$286
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 903 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 173.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $98 $166 +$68 (+69%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 6¢ 100¢ $9 $150 +$141 (+1566%)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 67¢ 100¢ $43 $64 +$21 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to Jun 18 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $380 −$380 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$4 -72%
Incheon United FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $396 −$396 -100%
Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $966 −$966 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Once Caldas vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $810 −$810 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 18 $739 −$739 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $660 −$660 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $780 −$780 -100%
FK Akron Tolyatti vs. PFK CSKA Moskva: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Seattle Reign FC vs. Utah Royals FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$8 -56%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $249 −$249 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$9 +143%
AC Nagano Parceiro vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $453 −$453 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$17 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +77%
Mumbai City FC vs. Odisha FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$3 +26%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 Jun 18 $359 −$359 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD Limache: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Racing Louisville FC vs. Orlando Pride end in a draw? Jun 18 $159 −$159 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5 Jun 18 $19 −$45 -238%
Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$13 -81%
Santos FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Will FC Seoul vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 59¢ $99 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 67¢ $20 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 67¢ $23 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $16 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 62¢ $162 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY 29¢ $20 6h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 82¢ $26 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $87 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $6 14h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 100¢ $5 14h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 96¢ $100 14h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 93¢ $9 14h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 92¢ $5 16h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $8 16h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 60¢ $13 17h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Stefano Travaglia 38¢ $14 17h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 73¢ $100 18h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 30¢ $11 18h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 71¢ $79 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $57 30h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 85¢ $49 34h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 82¢ $40 38h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 20¢ $4 38h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 28¢ $5 38h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 32¢ $3 38h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 50¢ $44 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.73 · official $379.73 (match) · 3500 history records