Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AB 0xabd7…a0ce other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$517 (+33%) realized +$530 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$349
sports 22% +$189
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +23.3% +11.5% 54% 51% +28.9%
≤30d 35 +23.3% +11.5% 54% 51% +28.9%
≤90d 35 +23.3% +11.5% 54% 51% +28.9%
all 35 +23.3% +11.5% 54% 51% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 51% +28.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 46% +16.6%
15% -8.9% 40% +5.3%
20% -17.8% 37% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$13 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$530
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage4d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$54 +265%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$36 +18%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$15 -37%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $197 +$22 +11%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$19 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$7 -35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$21 +51%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$36 -35%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$88 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 +$302 +267%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $41 +$17 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$3 -65%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 +$47 +70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $75 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $32 8h
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? BUY Yes $52 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $126 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $94 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.57 · official $129.57 (match) · 94 history records