Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabda…3823 crypto 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-2%) realized −$220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%259W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$84
14 days−$315
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -7.1% -15.9% 88% 12% -14.0%
≤30d 269 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 3% -11.5%
≤90d 269 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 3% -11.5%
all 269 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 3% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 3% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -20.0%
15% -25.6% 1% -27.7%
20% -32.9% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$58 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses259 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)269 / 271
History coverage21d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $292 $292 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $119 +$3 +2%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $199 −$151 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $174 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $130 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $154 +$33 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? Jun 21 $165 +$32 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $57 +$39 +68%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $124 +$2 +2%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 19? Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $49 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$4 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $135 +$10 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $292 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $29 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.02 · official $321.02 (match) · 820 history records