Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabdd…45ab crypto 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$417 (+1%) realized +$417 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%245W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -31.5% -38.0% 20% 20% -61.2%
≤30d 518 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 39% -32.0%
≤90d 603 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 41% -28.2%
all 603 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 41% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 41% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 40% -35.1%
15% -36.6% 40% -41.4%
20% -42.8% 37% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$94 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$417
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses245 / 358
Open positions0
Markets (closed)603 / 498
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 603 Trades
no open positions (366 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$129 +4177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$71 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $99 −$90 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$10 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $69 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $17 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $24 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $75 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records