trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -45.0% | -50.2% | 25% | 25% | +31.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -45.0% | -50.2% | 25% | 25% | +31.4% |
| all | 22 | -69.3% | -72.2% | 14% | 14% | -34.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -72.2% | 14% | -34.7% |
| 10% | -74.9% | 14% | -40.9% |
| 15% | -77.3% | 14% | -46.6% |
| 20% | -79.5% | 14% | -51.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $29 | $31 | +$2 (+5%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $15 | $13 | −$2 (-13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $56 | −$5 | -9% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $26 | −$25 | -97% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $68 | +$92 | +135% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $55 | +$58 | +105% |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Feb 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 01 | $50 | −$49 | -99% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on January 24? | Jan 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? | Jan 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on January 22? | Jan 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Aug 12 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 30 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | Dec 18 | $367 | −$46 | -12% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? | Dec 18 | $41 | −$23 | -55% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | Nov 29 | $100 | −$68 | -68% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Nov 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $99 | +$57 | +57% |