Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xabe0…b4fa other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$20
politics 17% −$4
economics 8% −$2
sports 7% −$21
tech 5% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -5.8% -14.8% 11% 7% -9.7%
all 104 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.9% 7% -18.4%
15% -30.3% 7% -26.3%
20% -37.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage92d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $389 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $213 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $405 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $405 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $189 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $395 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $423 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $399 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $739 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $397 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $343 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $123 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 13h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 18h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 34h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 37h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 6d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.48 · official $122.48 (match) · 305 history records