Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xabe0…5adb sports 1072 markets active 11h ago coverage 129d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,747 (-1%) realized −$3,747 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%600W / 472L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$3,656est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 129d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$9,462
other 4% +$1,089
crypto 2% +$1,415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 39% -6.9%
≤30d 143 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 39% -12.1%
≤90d 840 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 38% -12.9%
all 1072 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 45% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 45% -11.3%
10% -18.0% 34% -19.8%
15% -25.9% 25% -27.6%
20% -33.2% 17% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$119 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,747
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses600 / 472
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$3,656
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1072 / 1072
History coverage129d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1072 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $1,003 +$64 +6%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,315 +$127 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1,005 +$5 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1,609 +$343 +21%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,434 −$460 -32%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $508 +$478 +94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,326 +$281 +21%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $322 −$13 -4%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1,311 +$4 +0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1,135 +$196 +17%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $91 −$64 -71%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,538 −$336 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,643 −$140 -5%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $506 +$12 +2%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $683 −$298 -44%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $202 −$144 -71%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $806 +$274 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $625 +$202 +32%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1,268 −$203 -16%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $322 +$13 +4%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $625 +$202 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $754 −$134 -18%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $263 +$149 +57%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1,144 +$51 +4%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $592 −$17 -3%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $277 −$158 -57%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Lukas Pokorny Jun 10 $171 +$8 +5%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $26 −$2 -10%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $303 +$117 +39%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $503 +$106 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,471 +$29 +2%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $503 −$44 -9%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $167 −$49 -29%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $71 +$54 +76%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 08 $71 +$42 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $654 +$63 +10%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $192 +$113 +59%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $61 +$41 +67%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $242 −$48 -20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $540 +$11 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $735 +$214 +29%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $66 +$33 +50%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $45 −$44 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $66 +$36 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,135 +$61 +5%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $1,068 11h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $1 11h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 89¢ $1,003 12h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $1 12h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $1,112 13h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $757 14h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 33¢ $330 14h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $558 15h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 83¢ $1,011 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $1,005 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 42h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $1,952 47h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $1,609 47h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $600 47h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 66¢ $727 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 36¢ $375 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 66¢ $707 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 87¢ $986 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 44¢ $508 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,606 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $1,326 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 74¢ $305 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $3 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 76¢ $322 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 73¢ $1,315 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $1,311 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 85¢ $1,135 3d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 23¢ $26 3d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 77¢ $91 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2864 history records