Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabe1…2bcb other 11 markets active 8h ago coverage 717d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-16%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$33
politics 15% +$11
sports 8% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -33.0%
≤30d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -33.0%
≤90d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -33.0%
all 10 -34.3% -40.5% 40% 40% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 40% -33.0%
10% -46.2% 40% -39.4%
15% -51.4% 40% -45.3%
20% -56.2% 30% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage717d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $20 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 717d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.60 · official $6.68 (match) · 17 history records