Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabe5…d99a crypto 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,207 (-9%) realized −$6,203 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%211W / 581L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$1,450
sports 20% +$1,441
other 15% −$1,600
world 2% −$11
politics 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 -92.3% -93.1% 4% 4% -67.0%
≤30d 669 -53.4% -57.8% 23% 23% -30.9%
≤90d 792 -46.6% -51.7% 27% 26% -26.4%
all 792 -46.6% -51.7% 27% 26% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.7% 26% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -56.3% 25% -33.5%
15% -60.5% 25% -39.9%
20% -64.4% 23% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$76 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$6,203
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses211 / 581
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions6
Markets (closed)792 / 444
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$156
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $88 $116 +$28 (+32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 52¢ 14¢ $52 $14 −$38 (-74%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Jun 18 $20 −$21 -102%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-22? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Team Liquid win PGL Wallachia Season 8? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $468 −$468 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $50 −$65 -131%
Ducks vs. Wild Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 18 $320 −$320 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $354 −$354 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 18 $211 −$212 -101%
Will Trump shake hands with Friedrich Merz at the World Economic Forum Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-19? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jun 18 $50 −$53 -106%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 77¢ $76 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $73 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $221 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $249 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $577 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $40 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 30h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $253 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $64 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $167 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.62 · official $225.62 (match) · 3500 history records