Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xabe6…5d98 crypto 1099 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,639 (+3%) realized +$1,639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate86%940W / 159L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$109
14 days+$307
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +6.7% -3.5% 93% 22% -4.8%
≤30d 432 +1.7% -8.0% 89% 22% -8.1%
≤90d 1099 +2.7% -7.1% 86% 39% -7.2%
all 1099 +2.7% -7.1% 86% 39% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 39% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 2% -16.1%
15% -24.1% 0% -24.2%
20% -31.6% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses940 / 159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1099 / 1099
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1099 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $85 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $59 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $85 −$40 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $84 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$16 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $37 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $52 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $52 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $52 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $85 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $23 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $51 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $59 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records