Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabe7…24a0 sports 480 markets active 4h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%259W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$64
14 days−$8
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$70
other 9% +$15
world 0% +$8
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +14.8% +3.8% 61% 58% +8.1%
≤30d 218 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 48% -14.5%
≤90d 464 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 55% -10.2%
all 468 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 54% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 54% -10.2%
10% -20.6% 50% -18.8%
15% -28.3% 44% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 38% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses259 / 209
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions12
Markets (closed)468 / 480
History coverage95d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 70¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$7 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +48%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 +$5 +55%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $7 +$8 +105%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $9 +$6 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $9 +$6 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $16 −$1 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $12 −$5 -39%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$8 +101%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$5 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Munar Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 +$5 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $8 +$7 +90%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 +$5 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $33 +$3 +8%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $23 +$22 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $11 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $11 −$5 -41%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $9 +$5 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $9 +$7 +73%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $10 +$6 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $5 +$4 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $5 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 4h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $6 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $11 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 25h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $13 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 44h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $8 44h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $7 45h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $10 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 51¢ $16 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 59¢ $9 2d
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $9 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 48¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 82¢ $12 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 64¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 48¢ $5 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $5 3d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Minaur 51¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $4 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.17 · official $107.17 (match) · 946 history records