Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xabea…72ae other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$633 (+18%) realized +$632 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$897
sports 37% −$74
crypto 6% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤30d 10 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤90d 10 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
all 10 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 50% +11.5%
10% -7.0% 50% +0.8%
15% -16.0% 50% -8.9%
20% -24.2% 50% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$196 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$908
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $350 $354 +$4 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $147 $153 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $551 +$371 +67%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $402 −$356 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $384 +$544 +142%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $249 −$245 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $411 +$382 +93%
Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $61 +$144 +236%
Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $162 +$143 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $222 −$219 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $27 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $162 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $255 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $355 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $122 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $47 19h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 5¢ $46 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $504 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $504 19h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $249 20h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $76 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $423 21h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $326 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $223 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $161 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 77¢ $161 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $182 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $229 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $222 46h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $17 2d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $76 2d
Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY Yes 52¢ $162 2d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.93 · official $907.97 (match) · 29 history records