Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AB 0xabec…e3c9 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$467 (+22%) realized +$475 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate89%16W / 2L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$204
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$453
other 27% −$7
crypto 16% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +54.3% +39.6% 67% 67% +36.4%
≤90d 14 +22.6% +10.9% 86% 36% +17.3%
all 18 +17.7% +6.5% 89% 28% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 28% +16.3%
10% -3.7% 28% +5.2%
15% -13.0% 28% -5.0%
20% -21.6% 17% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$130 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized+$475
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses16 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage179d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $555 $548 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $246 +$204 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $111 +$200 +180%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $150 −$148 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $174 +$76 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $73 +$112 +152%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 05 $114 −$112 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 05 $279 +$121 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 12? Apr 28 $324 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Janua Apr 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? Apr 10 $12 $0 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Apr 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? Feb 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? Jan 07 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $565 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $246 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $111 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $150 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $174 33d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $73 42d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 36¢ $2 49d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 36¢ $112 49d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $279 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $324 73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? BUY No 100¢ $10 97d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $12 105d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 110d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 116d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 134d
Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 144d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Janua BUY No 91¢ $7 148d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 161d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 99¢ $13 167d
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.50 · official $547.50 (match) · 36 history records