Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabef…1819 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$496 (-8%) realized −$461 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$215
other 36% −$1,087
world 8% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -39.4% -45.2% 20% 20% -26.4%
≤30d 51 -39.4% -45.2% 20% 20% -26.4%
≤90d 51 -39.4% -45.2% 20% 20% -26.4%
all 51 -39.4% -45.2% 20% 20% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.2% 20% -26.4%
10% -50.4% 20% -33.4%
15% -55.2% 20% -39.9%
20% -59.6% 18% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$53 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized−$461
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage5d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $431 $404 −$27 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $136 $132 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$8 -15%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $195 −$30 -15%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $90 −$11 -12%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $103 −$12 -11%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $131 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $231 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$43 -83%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $102 −$92 -90%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$49 -48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $470 −$241 -51%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $496 −$28 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $609 +$544 +89%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $56 −$54 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $35 +$23 +67%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 +$18 +71%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$9 -43%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $40 +$88 +221%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $90 −$87 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $118 −$115 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $142 −$10 -7%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $41 −$18 -43%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 −$192 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $249 −$88 -35%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 +$46 +112%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $208 +$133 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $180 +$98 +55%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $116 −$115 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $82 +$73 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $202 −$121 -60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$65 +64%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $441 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 13¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 14¢ $91 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $129 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 19¢ $226 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $131 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $130 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 27¢ $92 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 6¢ $53 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $228 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $470 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $469 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $496 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $90 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.73 · official $581.73 (match) · 106 history records