Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AB 0xabf2…21c3 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized +$103 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$15
14 days+$96
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$17
other 33% −$91
tech 11% +$8
crypto 10% +$30
culture 3% −$3
sports 3% +$22
politics 3% +$12
economics 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.7% +26.4% 44% 44% -2.8%
≤30d 21 +40.5% +27.1% 57% 52% +11.4%
≤90d 21 +40.5% +27.1% 57% 52% +11.4%
all 21 +40.5% +27.1% 57% 52% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.1% 52% +11.4%
10% +14.9% 43% +0.8%
15% +3.8% 38% -9.0%
20% -6.3% 33% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)21 / 42
History coverage22d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+50%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? No 68¢ 92¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-67%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 40¢ 25¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-93%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? No 62¢ 8¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-86%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 48¢ 12¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-76%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Jun 21 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $75 −$23 -31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $25 −$4 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +285%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +172%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $10 +$42 +420%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $10 +$2 +21%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$10 +101%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 01 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Seas May 31 $4 $0 +8%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Kagiso Rabada win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3 +$2 +50%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 1h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $52 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $75 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 10d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 62¢ $25 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $12 12d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $21 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 15d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 16d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $10 16d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16d
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 16d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 16d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 16d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.44 · official $303.99 (match) · 85 history records