Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabf3…4807 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$255 (+7%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 39L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$185
other 25% −$109
crypto 1% −$10
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.2% -25.1% 17% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 61 -5.5% -14.5% 36% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 63 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 27% -7.7%
all 63 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 27% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 27% -7.7%
10% -21.6% 21% -16.6%
15% -29.2% 16% -24.6%
20% -36.1% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 39
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage34d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $132 −$9 -7%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $41 +$34 +82%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $41 −$10 -24%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $41 −$37 -91%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 −$12 -30%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $41 −$26 -63%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $41 −$10 -25%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $41 +$6 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $42 −$12 -28%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $41 +$26 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $41 −$14 -34%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $177 −$1 -0%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $41 −$6 -16%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $41 −$3 -8%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 26 $40 −$1 -3%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $40 +$1 +3%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $40 $0 -1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $41 −$10 -24%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 26 $40 −$10 -25%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $41 −$27 -67%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $0 $0 -27%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 26 $41 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 −$10 -24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $26 −$13 -49%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $41 −$11 -26%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $41 −$10 -25%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$11 -26%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $42 −$14 -34%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $41 −$16 -39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$17 -42%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $41 −$12 -30%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$26 -63%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $42 −$29 -70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 −$19 -23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $41 +$13 +32%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $288 +$342 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $113 −$29 -26%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $31 −$1 -3%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $15 +$2 +10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $15 +$8 +49%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $51 +$7 +13%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $152 −$30 -20%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $204 −$81 -40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $102 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 82¢ $100 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 36¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 45¢ $41 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 6¢ $4 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 51¢ $30 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 67¢ $41 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 53¢ $29 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $15 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 45¢ $24 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $41 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 64¢ $30 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $41 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 93¢ $47 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $41 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 3h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 77¢ $67 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 78¢ $41 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 15¢ $27 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 21¢ $41 3h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $41 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $41 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $41 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 72¢ $41 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $92 11h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY No 99¢ $177 11h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $35 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL No 38¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.72 · official $39.72 (match) · 149 history records