trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | -42.1% | -47.6% | 24% | 24% | -32.3% |
| ≤30d | 31 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 23% | 23% | -33.8% |
| ≤90d | 31 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 23% | 23% | -33.8% |
| all | 31 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 23% | 23% | -33.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.5% | 23% | -33.8% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 23% | -40.2% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 23% | -45.9% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 19% | -51.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $32 | +$70 | +220% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $27 | +$69 | +261% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 20 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 20 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 20 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 20 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 20 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 20 | $53 | −$53 | -100% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 20 | $53 | −$53 | -100% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 20 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 20 | $79 | −$79 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $105 | +$56 | +53% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $105 | +$38 | +36% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $16 | +$256 | +1598% |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 13 | $107 | −$104 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $106 | +$88 | +83% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | Jun 12 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 12 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Jun 12 | $115 | −$115 | -100% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 12 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $270 | −$129 | -48% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $58 | +$87 | +149% |