Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xabfc…f707 crypto 194 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+5%) realized +$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate99%193W / 1L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$80
14 days+$104
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$175
other 25% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 16% -2.7%
≤30d 136 +4.1% -5.8% 99% 11% -5.3%
≤90d 194 +5.6% -4.5% 99% 12% -4.9%
all 194 +5.6% -4.5% 99% 12% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 12% -4.9%
10% -13.6% 5% -14.0%
15% -22.0% 5% -22.3%
20% -29.6% 3% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$94 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses193 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage42d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $59 +$5 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$6 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$10 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$4 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$2 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$27 +54%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$8 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$6 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $45 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 26h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 43h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $14 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $44 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $44 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $43 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 427 history records