Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabfe…256e other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113 (-34%) realized −$115 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$64
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$34
sports 35% −$70
crypto 9% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -28.5% -35.3% 9% 9% -37.3%
≤30d 29 -44.1% -49.5% 7% 7% -52.4%
≤90d 29 -44.1% -49.5% 7% 7% -52.4%
all 29 -44.1% -49.5% 7% 7% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 7% -52.4%
10% -54.3% 7% -57.0%
15% -58.7% 3% -61.1%
20% -62.8% 3% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$10 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$125 +1254%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 −$6 -53%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 84¢ $135 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.84 · official $38.84 (match) · 38 history records