Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:59:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10.0
score
AB 0xabfe…54f9 other 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$11,685 (+52%) realized +$11,675 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate69%129W / 58L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$199
14 days+$193
30 days+$1,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$11,553
sports 1% +$4
world 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +26.7% +14.6% 86% 86% +21.3%
≤30d 30 +40.2% +26.9% 73% 60% +34.9%
≤90d 75 +17.8% +6.5% 63% 47% +17.6%
all 187 +31.7% +19.1% 69% 47% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 47% +37.2%
10% +7.7% 36% +24.0%
15% -2.7% 27% +12.1%
20% -12.2% 19% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$14 · ×6.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.08 per $1 lost it wins $15.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$11,675
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses129 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage620d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 79¢ 94¢ $72 $84 +$13 (+18%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 24 $107 +$64 +60%
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl Jun 24 $97 +$33 +34%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 24 $7 +$1 +15%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 24 $10 +$3 +35%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 24 $263 +$88 +34%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? Jun 22 $47 −$31 -67%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 19 $53 +$41 +76%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 17 $6 −$4 -61%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 17 $63 +$4 +6%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 16 $16 −$6 -40%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $465 +$141 +30%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $261 +$92 +35%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $4 +$5 +148%
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 08 $393 +$108 +27%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $178 +$277 +156%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $98 +$315 +321%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $35 +$147 +419%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $43 +$5 +12%
Megaquake by June 30? Jun 08 $75 +$59 +78%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $101 +$4 +4%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $6 −$5 -95%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 07 $436 +$151 +35%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 31 $99 +$29 +29%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 31 $19 +$8 +44%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 30 $22 +$1 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $84 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $8 −$7 -98%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 28 $89 −$6 -7%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 25 $4 −$1 -13%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 23 $363 −$9 -2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 23 $26 −$8 -30%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 19 $160 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $52 −$26 -49%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $9 −$5 -58%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 16 $31 −$11 -36%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 16 $386 +$64 +16%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 16 $416 +$32 +8%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 15 $95 −$39 -41%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 15 $818 +$37 +4%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 14 $14 +$16 +116%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026? May 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 09 $210 +$10 +5%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 08 $710 +$106 +15%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 02 $302 +$40 +13%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 26 $66 +$39 +59%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 26 $148 −$45 -30%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 26 $57 −$35 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY No 89¢ $58 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 4¢ $12 1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid BUY No 55¢ $14 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 97¢ $41 2h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 88¢ $38 2h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl SELL Yes 18¢ $94 2h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl SELL Yes 18¢ $36 2h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL No 82¢ $8 2h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL Yes 62¢ $130 2h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 97¢ $13 2h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 85¢ $209 2h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 60¢ $3 2h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 58¢ $28 2h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 70¢ $7 2h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 13¢ $96 2h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 71¢ $10 2h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 49¢ $2 2h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 43¢ $23 2h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 40¢ $53 2h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 32¢ $69 2h
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 2d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 33¢ $5 3d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 35¢ $54 3d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 36¢ $4 3d
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 40¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.78 · official $97.78 (match) · 1064 history records