Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac00…b58d
crypto · 148 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$58 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$243
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses61 / 69
Open positions18
Markets (closed)130 / 148
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$38
14 days+$21
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 62¢ 89¢ $33 $48 +$15 (+44%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 54¢ 79¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+47%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 47¢ 99¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+112%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 81¢ 90¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 33¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 46¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 67¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 40¢ 21¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 16¢ $7 $3 −$5 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 28¢ 11¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 32¢ 3¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 14 $21 +$7 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $53 −$27 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $27 +$6 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $17 −$10 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $13 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $8 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 76¢ $3 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -19.3% -27.0% 43% 33% -16.3%
≤30d 122 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 38% -3.7%
≤90d 130 +8.8% -1.6% 47% 37% -8.4%
all 130 +8.8% -1.6% 47% 37% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 37% -8.4%
10% -11.0% 28% -17.1%
15% -19.6% 22% -25.1%
20% -27.5% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.78 · official $243.31 (match) · 511 history records