Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac02…b942 sports 671 markets active 4h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$639 (-4%) realized −$638 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%291W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$25
14 days+$30
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$526
world 26% −$2
crypto 6% −$210
other 5% −$101
politics 2% −$23
tech 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.8% -20.2% 35% 27% -5.2%
≤30d 75 -11.4% -19.9% 36% 28% -12.9%
≤90d 665 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 33% -13.9%
all 665 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 33% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 24% -22.1%
15% -36.1% 20% -29.7%
20% -42.4% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$638
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses291 / 374
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions6
Markets (closed)665 / 671
History coverage72d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 65¢ 85¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 44¢ 68¢ $7 $10 +$4 (+56%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 97¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 48¢ 12¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $26 −$4 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -53%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $204 +$25 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 +$3 +137%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $19 +$7 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $23 −$5 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -34%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$6 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 −$2 -14%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $12 −$5 -45%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$17 +39%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $38 +$10 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$6 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $22 +$2 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -27%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6 +$2 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $91 −$3 -3%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $47 −$16 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $258 −$91 -36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$4 +137%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $3 +$1 +40%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $129 +$19 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $220 +$14 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $41 −$11 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 29 $42 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $261 −$12 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $15 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $12 4h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $9 4h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $9 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $12 7h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $1 9h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 9h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 77¢ $2 11h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 26h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 26h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 16¢ $3 27h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 64¢ $1 27h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 73¢ $2 27h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $1 27h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 22¢ $1 27h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 22¢ $0 28h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 46¢ $0 28h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 46¢ $0 28h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 46¢ $0 28h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $1 28h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 43¢ $3 28h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $2 28h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $3 28h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 57¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.74 · official $34.74 (match) · 3172 history records