trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 67% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 44% | 11% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 44% | 11% | -7.4% |
| all | 26 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 38% | 12% | -6.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 12% | -6.8% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 8% | -15.7% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 8% | -23.8% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 4% | -31.3% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $60 | +$1 | +2% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $55 | −$1 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $99 | +$3 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $7 | −$1 | -20% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $15 | +$8 | +57% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $15 | $0 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $48 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 07 | $80 | +$15 | +19% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Colorado vs. Texas Tech | Mar 04 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? | Mar 04 | $42 | −$3 | -7% |
| Baylor vs. TCU | Mar 03 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 3? | Mar 03 | $43 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? | Mar 02 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on Februar | Mar 02 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Mar 01 | $31 | +$12 | +39% |
| Wyoming vs. Nevada | Feb 24 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of | Feb 24 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Michigan vs. Nebraska | Feb 24 | $30 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? | Feb 23 | $34 | −$4 | -12% |