Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac0e…c0bf crypto 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 838d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,564 (-19%) realized −$2,881 · open −$683
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 52L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$217
14 days+$229
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$2,690
other 29% −$397
sports 10% −$164
economics 10% −$1,069
world 8% +$672
politics 4% +$135
culture 4% −$218
finance 2% +$18
tech 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.4% -23.5% 67% 56% +3.5%
≤30d 17 -11.8% -20.2% 71% 41% -8.9%
≤90d 43 -19.4% -27.1% 51% 37% -17.1%
all 91 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 34% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 34% -28.1%
10% -35.8% 24% -35.0%
15% -42.0% 16% -41.3%
20% -47.7% 13% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$107 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

838d coverage
Net worth$2,380
Realized−$2,881
Unrealized−$683
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions11
Markets (closed)91 / 103
History coverage838d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $250 $582 +$332 (+133%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $371 +$121 (+49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $875 $262 −$613 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 20¢ $500 $247 −$253 (-51%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 36¢ $250 $218 −$32 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $262 $176 −$86 (-33%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $250 $172 −$78 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $169 −$81 (-32%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $125 $135 +$10 (+8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $125 +$6 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $70 +$13 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$20 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $763 +$193 +25%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $425 +$55 +13%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $125 +$12 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 10 $45 −$43 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,477 −$397 -27%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $255 +$37 +14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $750 +$19 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $514 +$176 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $125 +$5 +4%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 18 $28 −$27 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 06 $125 +$105 +84%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 05 $128 −$126 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 05 $389 −$387 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 03 $125 +$60 +48%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Apr 26 $250 −$103 -41%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $62 −$3 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $21 +$6 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $125 +$129 +103%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 16 $125 +$18 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 16 $123 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 13 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $125 +$418 +335%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 08 $125 −$125 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 08 $125 +$121 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 24 $125 −$61 -49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 23 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $371 −$78 -21%
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? Mar 20 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 19 $29 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $132 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $19 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29 BUY $25 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 33h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $772 33h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $321 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $125 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $137 10d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY No 21¢ $45 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $132 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $131 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $70 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $775 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $6 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $191 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $67 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $511 17d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 43¢ $291 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $258 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $255 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $389 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,379.76 · official $2,379.76 (match) · 487 history records