Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AC 0xac14…fcaa sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$1,177 (+9%) realized +$1,178 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate69%35W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$512
7 days−$89
14 days−$59
30 days+$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,024
other 6% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.2% -2.1% 71% 57% -11.8%
≤30d 11 +12.9% +2.2% 73% 64% -3.6%
≤90d 49 +24.8% +12.9% 67% 61% -0.2%
all 51 +25.1% +13.2% 69% 61% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 61% -0.2%
10% +2.3% 47% -9.7%
15% -7.5% 43% -18.5%
20% -16.6% 33% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$73 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$1,178
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses35 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage138d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Sri Lanka 86¢ 100¢ $47 $55 +$8 (+16%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Scotland 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $907 −$512 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $351 +$56 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $532 +$137 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $365 +$167 +46%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $323 +$162 +50%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $471 −$144 -30%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $646 +$47 +7%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $196 +$30 +15%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1,130 −$26 -2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $586 +$238 +41%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $854 +$266 +31%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $549 +$68 +12%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $650 −$35 -5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $604 +$123 +20%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $477 +$98 +20%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $456 +$9 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $528 −$31 -6%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $470 +$58 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $387 +$83 +22%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 18 $88 −$39 -44%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $263 +$124 +47%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $61 +$72 +118%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $124 +$79 +64%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 13 $61 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $120 +$84 +70%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: Pakistan vs USA (Game 1) May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs USA (Game 1) May 09 $11 −$7 -63%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 09 $51 −$51 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Nepal (Game 1) May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $61 +$66 +109%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $51 +$42 +82%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $51 +$58 +114%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $61 +$36 +59%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $49 +$53 +109%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $51 +$65 +128%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $51 +$60 +118%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $25 +$44 +172%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $22 +$30 +134%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $5 +$5 +109%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $12 +$4 +36%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $5 +$8 +151%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $5 +$14 +290%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1) Feb 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 86¢ $47 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 30¢ $47 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 73¢ $118 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Sri Lanka 43¢ $118 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 75¢ $157 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Sri Lanka 75¢ $54 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 86¢ $183 6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 25¢ $183 6h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 95¢ $73 36h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 96¢ $200 36h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 96¢ $451 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $351 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 79¢ $532 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $365 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 66¢ $323 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 26¢ $0 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 57¢ $326 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 80¢ $471 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $471 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $420 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 88¢ $222 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $226 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 86¢ $196 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $1,095 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 98¢ $1,074 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 4¢ $9 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 14¢ $5 26d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 29¢ $51 26d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $1,120 28d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 81¢ $768 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.66 · official $54.66 (match) · 169 history records