Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac16…d684
sports · 14 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$14 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 34¢ 57¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 13¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 64¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner XLG Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $39 −$10 -25%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $23 +$10 +43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$4 -10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$5
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $5 2m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 40¢ $6 16m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 13¢ $0 20m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $5 22m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 36¢ $2 33m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 33¢ $8 38m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $10 46m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $10 50m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $5 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $15 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $11 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 36¢ $12 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $10 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $18 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 69¢ $19 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $20 8h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $10 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 22¢ $5 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $5 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $4 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 96¢ $29 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 73¢ $13 18h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 74¢ $14 18h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 75¢ $14 18h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 83¢ $24 18h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 79¢ $23 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 36% -12.8%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 36% -12.8%
≤90d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 36% -12.8%
all 11 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 36% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 36% -21.2%
15% -27.8% 36% -28.8%
20% -34.9% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.63 · official $8.64 (match) · 36 history records