Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac16…6c6a sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$782 (-7%) realized −$771 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%78W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$711
7 days−$1,727
14 days−$1,727
30 days−$1,727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,308
sports 29% −$340
politics 16% +$938
culture 1% −$18
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -43.9% -49.2% 36% 23% -29.2%
≤30d 22 -43.9% -49.2% 36% 23% -29.2%
≤90d 22 -43.9% -49.2% 36% 23% -29.2%
all 112 -2.2% -11.5% 70% 60% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 60% -15.4%
10% -20.0% 47% -23.5%
15% -27.7% 26% -30.9%
20% -34.8% 8% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$89 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized−$771
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses78 / 34
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)112 / 117
History coverage179d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $206 $205 −$1 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $103 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $311 +$49 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $327 +$672 +206%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$22 -22%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $2,040 +$50 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $104 +$55 +53%
Canadiens vs. Capitals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Bruins Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,209 −$2,205 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,003 +$102 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $156 +$8 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$57 +57%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Mar 16 $100 +$180 +180%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 16 $800 +$580 +72%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Mar 16 $100 −$25 -25%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Mar 16 $50 −$18 -35%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 10 $50 −$24 -47%
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Feb 18 $400 +$106 +26%
UIC Flames vs. Bradley Braves Feb 02 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 02 $300 +$110 +37%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State Wildcats Jan 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Red Wings vs. Jets Jan 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem Jan 23 $20 +$9 +42%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 23 $80 +$84 +105%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 23 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $29 +$22 +76%
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Lightning vs. Blues Jan 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jan 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Flames vs. Blue Jackets Jan 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $104 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $106 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $211 1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $270 6h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $203 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $90 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $78 8h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $112 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $92 27h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $8 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $327 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 34h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $272 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $41 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $318 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $49 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $49 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $382 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $59 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $432 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.40 · official $602.80 (match) · 301 history records