Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xac19…65bf crypto 633 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$506 (-2%) realized −$414 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%315W / 315L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$346
7 days−$346
14 days−$346
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$812
sports 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -62.6%
≤30d 5 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -62.6%
≤90d 514 -2.0% -11.4% 51% 51% -11.4%
all 630 -3.3% -12.6% 50% 50% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -11.7%
10% -20.9% 49% -20.1%
15% -28.6% 49% -27.8%
20% -35.6% 49% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$37 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized−$414
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses315 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)630 / 633
History coverage105d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $409 $284 −$125 (-31%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner 4ikibamboni 65¢ 82¢ $122 $155 +$33 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 290 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $108 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$62 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $313 −$303 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 30 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $62 −$48 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 29 $115 −$109 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 29 $49 +$66 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 29 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 29 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 29 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 23 $302 −$292 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 23 $300 −$283 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 23 $832 −$824 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 23 $173 +$184 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 23 $1,200 −$1,156 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 09 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 09 $14 +$16 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 09 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 02 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 02 $16 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 02 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 02 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 31 $66 +$54 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 31 $66 +$54 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 31 $66 +$60 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 31 $66 +$61 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 31 $300 −$289 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 31 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 31 $66 +$54 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 31 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 31 $66 +$58 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 31 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 31 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 31 $66 −$64 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 65¢ $123 45m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 87¢ $123 47m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 75¢ $108 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $213 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $17 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $142 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.76 · official $438.73 (match) · 1239 history records