Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac22…7e66 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
politics 23% −$1
sports 12% $0
other 6% $0
crypto 5% +$1
culture 4% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 40 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage286d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $33 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $68 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $34 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $34 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $117K September 8–14? Sep 16 $27 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Sep 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $34 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $34 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $33 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $1 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $34 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $21 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $12 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $32 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records