Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac24…576e
sports · 510 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$119 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$259 · open −$127
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$709
Realized+$259
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses261 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$307
Open positions23
Markets (closed)487 / 510
History coverage38d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 23 History 487 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$481
7 days+$725
14 days+$933
30 days+$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $187 $152 −$35 (-19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $98 $90 −$8 (-8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? No 76¢ 80¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $91 $16 −$75 (-82%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $12 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? No 65¢ 38¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $3 $8 +$4 (+142%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 46¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $187 +$60 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $144 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $768 +$32 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $288 +$12 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $143 −$140 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $433 +$379 +88%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $72 +$72 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $317 +$22 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$26 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$4 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $205 +$31 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $226 −$226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $172 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $154 +$6 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1,128 +$109 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,005 +$139 +14%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $111 −$41 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $155 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $192 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$13 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $39 −$19 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $18 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $90 +$73 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $10 +$15 +142%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $467 −$21 -4%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +1%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $82 +$54 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$502
crypto 31% +$274
weather 16% +$249
other 7% +$137
politics 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 20m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $18 27m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 80¢ $247 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -12.8% -21.1% 58% 31% -5.4%
≤30d 412 -13.1% -21.3% 57% 27% -8.0%
≤90d 487 -11.0% -19.4% 54% 27% -8.8%
all 487 -11.0% -19.4% 54% 27% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 27% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 22% -17.6%
15% -34.2% 19% -25.5%
20% -40.6% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.34 · official $712.75 (match) · 3500 history records