Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac25…147a sports 420 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$989 (+2%) realized +$1,289 · open −$300
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%206W / 166L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days+$386
14 days+$368
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,926
politics 23% +$729
sports 13% −$946
crypto 11% −$306
world 8% +$443
economics 2% −$530
tech 2% −$66
finance 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 35% -5.4%
≤30d 55 +3.9% -6.0% 47% 36% -6.3%
≤90d 230 +4.1% -5.8% 58% 55% -8.0%
all 372 +0.5% -9.0% 55% 49% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 49% -6.9%
10% -17.7% 45% -15.8%
15% -25.7% 40% -24.0%
20% -33.0% 31% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$47 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$5,177
Realized+$1,289
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses206 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions48
Markets (closed)372 / 420
History coverage242d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $384 $617 +$233 (+61%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $674 $601 −$74 (-11%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 78¢ 82¢ $500 $529 +$29 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $299 $352 +$54 (+18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $456 $334 −$122 (-27%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $301 $306 +$5 (+1%)
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No 86¢ 76¢ $300 $267 −$33 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $193 $216 +$24 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $190 $205 +$15 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $200 $160 −$39 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $195 $156 −$38 (-20%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 78¢ 62¢ $157 $123 −$33 (-21%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $122 $105 −$17 (-14%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $201 $96 −$105 (-52%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $79 −$3 (-4%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+53%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $78 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $74 −$16 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $87 $66 −$20 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $62 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $14 $63 +$49 (+350%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 54¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $504 +$163 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,097 +$67 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,023 +$94 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,003 +$113 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$25 -82%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$30 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -64%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $523 +$80 +15%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $101 −$16 -16%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,042 +$64 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$20 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,005 +$41 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$49 -49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$23 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$45 +874%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$23 +442%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $310 −$71 -23%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $334 +$55 +16%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 25 $864 +$45 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $150 −$39 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $504 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $18 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $228 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $23 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $58 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $106 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $28 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $62 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,002 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $6 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $119 23h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 24h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 24h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 24h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 24h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 24h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $125 24h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 24h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 24h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 16¢ $5 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,177.16 · official $5,177.70 (match) · 1396 history records