Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac26…2543 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+5%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$4
politics 23% −$1
other 22% +$4
crypto 6% +$74
weather 6% −$2
culture 5% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 0% -8.9%
all 44 +44.1% +30.4% 66% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 7% -8.3%
10% +17.9% 7% -17.0%
15% +6.5% 7% -25.1%
20% -3.9% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.22 per $1 lost it wins $7.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage467d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $59 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $17 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $73 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $72 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -15%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 31 $83 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 30 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $81 $0 +0%
U.S. Federal judge impeached before April? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 28 $41 $0 -0%
Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? Mar 28 $88 $0 +0%
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? Mar 28 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 27 $82 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $3 +$2 +68%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $73 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 23 $7 −$3 -47%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 21 $79 +$1 +1%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 20 $0 $0 +62%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 $0 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 21? Mar 19 $81 −$1 -2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 18 $1 +$80 +7592%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $14 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $26 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $34 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records