Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac27…c628 other 16 markets active 14h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,855 (+70%) realized +$244 · open +$1,611
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$2,907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,833
crypto 16% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 50% +3.2%
≤30d 2 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 50% +3.2%
≤90d 3 -20.9% -28.5% 33% 33% -5.2%
all 13 +0.1% -9.5% 69% 15% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 15% +5.9%
10% -18.1% 8% -4.2%
15% -26.0% 8% -13.5%
20% -33.3% 8% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$12 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.87 per $1 lost it wins $5.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$2,907
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$1,611
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage170d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 60¢ $911 $2,591 +$1,680 (+185%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $292 $244 −$48 (-16%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $94 $72 −$21 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SBF released from custody in 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -64%
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $76 +$14 +19%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 19 $33 −$6 -18%
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 08 $161 +$230 +142%
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Feb 07 $172 +$14 +8%
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 31 $60 +$6 +10%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 22 $102 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jan 16 $228 +$8 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $204 +$2 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 5? Jan 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $94 13h
SBF released from custody in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 91¢ $90 6d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 35d
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 35d
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 44d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $8 47d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $8 47d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $8 47d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $8 48d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $2 48d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $5 48d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $15 48d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $8 48d
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $15 48d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 80d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $500 80d
SBF released from custody in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 111d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 119d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 121d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 121d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 123d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 124d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 125d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 134d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 134d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 134d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 134d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 134d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,907.28 · official $2,907.28 (match) · 106 history records