Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

AC 0xac2e…db12 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$31 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-23.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+12.2%	+1.5%	67%	33%	-7.5%
≤30d	4	-15.9%	-23.9%	50%	25%	-8.2%
≤90d	4	-15.9%	-23.9%	50%	25%	-8.2%
all	4	-15.9%	-23.9%	50%	25%	-8.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.9%	25%	-8.2%
10%	-31.2%	25%	-17.0%
15%	-37.8%	25%	-25.0%
20%	-43.9%	0%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized+$31

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage9d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-29%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$2	$1	−$2 (-70%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$298	+$5	+2%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$5	+$2	+47%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$5	−$1	-12%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$3	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$303	1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$8	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$5	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$298	4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$4	8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3	8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3	8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.68 · official $7.68 (match) · 18 history records